Voteting UK View of Politics USA

It was surprisingly easy for David Cameron to get very friendly with Nick Clegg and form a coalition, using the Lib Dem votes to form a government.  Possibly it was electyion weariness that little objection has occurred considering the huge change in politics since the formation. For example those who voted LIb Dem, don’t seem to have objected to the fact they were responsible for putting David Cameron in Number 10, or that at the next election it is likely that many voters will just not use the middleman and vote directly for the Conservatives.  Labour have been quiet, very clever really knowing just to let this period blow over and when conference season starts soon, let it all out after they have voted for their own leader first.

Currently David Cameron is on holiday and his wife ha just had another baby, we congratulate them so Nick Clegg is at the helm supporting the issues he so vigorously fought against in those what must be laughable TV debates only months ago.  Businesses up and down the country are worried about a double dip recession, for travel agents, with some of them going bust this summer, to builders like Permissions who have just reported good profits for the beginning of the year suggesting some sort of property recovery, to those industries based around the property market like the supplier of composite doors and garden stiff like block paving.

What wed o know is that pretty much what we though we were voting for is not happening, even conservative voters are accepting responses that the economy is worse than even they thought. Do hang on for the ride, my money is on another government next time round.

As MR George Osborne stood at the front door of number 10 holding that traditional briefcase up the media we knew there would be a budget to talk about for some years to come. The conservatives made this a budget to reduce the UK’s national deficit and stated this was would be hard but fair. As the press toady write about how impressive his stance is, or how the latest cuts and VAT rise would form a second dip in the economy, you know that this is either a very clever man or a fool waiting to fall.

With President Obama suggesting to the world leaders, that cutting spending too quickly could cause a second recession (something Gordon brown was keen to promote) and other financial experts agreeing, the coalition have decided just to go for it now, not waiting for things to level out more.  The biggest announcement was that VAT would rise from 17.5% to 20%, there were some rumbles in the house of commons when this was mentioned, but considering this was something Labour were going to do anyway, no one rally could complain. As this will happen in January next year, it may be a good Christmas for many retailers as people buy early to avoid the VAT rise. On saying that, the previous Vat drop to stimulate the economy by Gordon brown, didn’t seem to make any impact, so there is also an argument, that 2 1.2% added may have the same effect as being taken away.

Then we start talking about the public sector and how just about all departments will have to make 25% reductions in costs and that there will be a pay freeze on most public sector workers for the next 3 years.  How will this go down?  Well considering that many workers were expecting to lose their jobs or at least compete for them, this may not get as much criticism as in different times.

The Liberal Democrats are in uproar over the immediate VAT rise, claiming this is not what they voted for at the last election and that they are in bed with the Conservatives. It is true that some jobs were created to accommodate these Liberal politicians, an argument that will not go away and will probably get worse.  Is this budget there will be more news and old news than normal.

President Obama has said he is looking forward to working with the new Prime Minister of the UK the morning after the election has closed.  But Britain faces something it has not done so since 1974 a hung parliament where no outright winner was elected. the magic number was 326 seats for outright majority, with the conservatives getting the highest vote with 308 seats, bit enough to seal victory.

The result is the Conservatives are trying to do a deal with the Lib Dems, to see if they can create some sort of coalition government, with agreed  shared policies. If this is agreed, Nick Clegg will achieved more than any other Lib Den leader has in nearly 100 years, even though he lost seats this election. Labour also wants to deal, but knows it needs to wait to see if the talks between the conservatives and Lib Dems falls down first before they move. This is probably Gordon Brown’s last chance of staying in number 10, and many cannot see how the conservatives and even the LIb Dems would want this to happen, even though the Lib Dems policies are closer to Labour’s than the Conservatives.

In the meantime we all sit and ait and wonder what the future of Britain will be. It will not match what anyone voted for, as every party will be make concessions.

Small businesses will be also waiting, not wanting to commit to large purchases or marketing campaigns until they know he mapped out political future.  Take a small company such as Global Door. They rely very much on the housing and DIY market, to sell their range of composite doors. Currently they do not know if interest rates will rise this year or next and can only wait and hope the political decisions help small businesses to cripples them in order to pay back the national debt.  This does not just stay at composite doors, but also the motoring sector where businesses want to know if there is enough confidence after any coalition in the business sector to buy high ticket items such as a new vehicle, or even commit to company vehicles.

Time will tell, but how long? Will this process take for ever, will every decision take forever? It didn’t work in 1974, so should it work now? Or is it a safer bet to have more than one party governing, ensuring all decisions are safe ones in this financial unstable time?

Three major uk polical parties, Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrats have different approaches to managing the UK Deficit.

In 2009 the UK posted a UK Government deficit of £159.2 billion, equivalent to over 11% of UK GDP. One might be lulled into a false sense of security thinking that this is a sustainable debt considering we are in the grips of the deepest recession since 1920’s.

However any good accountant in the UK will know, and be happy to tell you, that (by December 2009) the UK Government debt reached in excess of £950 billion, equivalent to more than 68% UK GDP. The figures don’t make such good reading, which is why accountants are good people to have around in business. They can make sense of what is really happening. UK Accountants will also tell you about impending consequences, and in this case are much more likely to do so that UK Politicians (who act as if they don’t know). perhaps Uk Accountants should play a more active part in UK politics since politics is almost always about the economy and Government spending. Is this not the case in US Politics, and the election of President Obama into the White House in 2009.

In the UK’s case, the Maastricht Treaty sets limits on deficit and debt  to 60 per cent for all EU countries, including the UK. This means that the UK is in default. Assessment is on a financial year basis and data was passed to the E.U. Commission at the end of March 2010. It is still inclear what the final consequences of the UK default will be. It will surely put the UK’s all important AAA credit rating in jeopardy. It is this error that could cloud how Gordon Brown’s time in charge as UK Prime Minister may be judged, and gives ammunition and power to the COnservatives argument of severe cuts in public spending to bring the UK Deficit into line.

The conclusions being made by the media and polls is that we are heading for a hung parliament with no clear majority within the UK elections. Gordon Brown is trailing third, but compared to his popularity last year, the figure are better with conservatives a clear favourite last year, not not sure whether they will win with enough majority, if the polls are to believed. 

The new thing for 2010 has the televised debates that has got the people of the UK talking and has radically changed the Lib Dems’ chances, as Nick Clegg’s popularity rose massively after the first debate. It raises the question of whether the main voters will vote for someone they like, or for their policies in their manifesto.

The economy is the key theme this year, with Labour saying it is too early to make massive change and the conservatives wanting to do more earlier and with the current problems in Greece, his argument may be getting through more.

But the details of the parties manifestos, seem to be lost in the media scrum for likeability of the comments Mr brown made about Mrs. Duffy, that appears to have hurt him in the media eyes, but not in the polls.

The problem with the manifestos (all of them), is that they are just too general. If we take an industry such as car manufacturing that has just been through (and is possibly is still in ) the worst downturn ever, there is not clear words of what each party will do to help this industry. The success in car buying relates to the factories, car showrooms the UK leasing companies, not to mention the related car parts and accessory businesses.

This has not been singled out as the worst but just as an example, that most people do not feel they are being represented within these manifestos, as they are just too general and created to create a dream of a wonderful Britain, when in reality most people are more interested in their families future and success.

So here to Thursdays elections and lets see if the vote goes to nice people, someone who insults his voters or a party that was miles ahead a year ago and now is looking to just be the majority in a hung parliament.

You can read the full address here a link from Face book.

Organizing For America

The honeymoon period of Obama may be over as he has now decided to send and extra 30,000 troops to afghanistan with apromise than in 18 months troops will be comming back home.

It is huge gamble based on information that with right numbers, the war can be won although everyine has an opinion of what will be decided as a win. The TV camera went out to the USA citizens with some claiming they though Obama was for peace not war and they felt a bit cheated. However whether these were carefully chosen people to get the drama of the news or the general opinion of the masses we still don’t know.

What we do know is that comming home without any achievement will leave the critics open to say all lives lost in Afghanistan would have been for nothing and Obama needs to achieve to go down in history as a great President. A difficult decison with no supporters either way.

The normal very politcally correct Question Time has fallen into troubled times recently when it was announced that Nick Griffin from the BNP party would be on the show. The BBC has been heavily critised for its decision, but defended itself by claiming that it had a responsibility to allow members of any political party that has a representation through the councils of the UK.

The results was demonstrations outside of the BBC and headline news which must be great news for the BNP who are getting a massive amount of publicity both positive of the event and even those who disagree with the BNP party views still believe that in a democracy he should be allowed to be on the programme than it is up to the voters to decide the issues.

The papers the next day were full of opinions of one sidedness and some claimed the audience had been chosen for the night. The BNP have far right views but recenetly have had some success at the polls which many belive is due to the lack of performance from the Labour and Conservative party.

The Labour party have accused David Cameron of Dithering on the Referendum on The Lisbon Treaty and others have accused him of a U turn and a previous promise. This treaty would in affect bring in a European Union President, but with Ireland ratifying the treaty, with only Poland and Czech Republic still to vote, David cameron has said he will not hold a referendum until he knows the resulst from these two and even then has not promised one. This has left many accusing him of back pedaling on a previous promise and is creating headline news as the Conservatives head into their annual conference in manchester.

The Eurosceptics want a retrospective referendum and those in support of more power going to Brussels do not want his to go ahead in case the result is a resounding no.

You can read more about David Cameron Dithering at the Gardian

As the great and not so great leaders of the world come together, we look forward to an intersting time of bonding in the hope that the world will be a safer place. Obama started off the speeches as the United States in teh host nation this year, but then followed by Libya’s leader. As I write this, he is just starting his speach with a thank you to the American President.

These are moments of opportunty, making the most of them can bring the world together, ignore them and find hostility and mistrust can be instilled in many nation.  The UN website states “its your world” what it does state is that we have little control over our leaders actions even in a democracy.

Obama mentions that no one form the outside can instill democracy on a country, something that the United States have been trying to do for the last decade, so lets see if his more balanced approach realyy does make a difference.